The first half of the year is over. 1 July marks the beginning of the next six months of what has been a difficult year for investors.
The outlook for the second half hinges on whether the leaders of China and America can put aside theirs bloated egos just long enough to find a way to resolve their differences. We should find out one way or another on Monday.
The US kicks off with trade data for May. America’s balance of trade, which is not closely that watched by anyone except the occupants of The White House, is expected to show a deficit of US$49.8 billion….
…. That would be almost unchanged from the previous month. So much for trade wars being an easy win.
China will report some key purchasing managers’ indices. It could show that the manufacturing sector is on the cusp of contraction. The services sector should still be in expansion mode, though.
European retail sales should provide the ECB with some reason to feel a bit more cheerful. In May, growth in the retail sector should be around 1.5%, which is unchanged from April.
Japan has some household spending numbers to share, too. They are expected to show that spending by Japanese households accelerated to 2.6% from 1.3% the previous month.
Australia’s central bank will announce its latest interest-rate decision. In June, the RBA cut the cash rate for the first time since August 2016. Some experts predict another cut in July.
And finally, Malaysia could say that it’s balance of trade surplus rose from MYR10.9 billion in April to RM12.6 billion in May. Exports could have fallen 1%, while imports declined 0.2%.
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