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The Week Ahead: India Growth Set To Slow

A second estimate of America’s GDP for the first quarter is expected to confirm that the country grew at an annualised rate of 3.2%. In the first three months of the year, growth was supported by personal consumption expenditure and private investment.

Whilst personal spending was strong in the first quarter, it could have started coming off the boil since then. April personal spending could show that growth slowed to 0.1% from 0.9% in March.

A couple pf purchasing managers indices is expected to indicate that China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors continue to grow. In April, the NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 50.1, whilst the NBS non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.3. But both indices are still above 50, which could indicate expansion.

The results of the European Parliamentary elections should start trickling in early Monday morning. Elsewhere, the Business Climate Indicator for the European Union in May could show another fall. The reading in April was the lowest since for nearly three years. The reading for May could be even lower.

Inflation in Japan is expected to be unchanged at 1.4% in May. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 2.5% in April, while Japan’s retail sales growth for April could have accelerated to 1.5%.

Growth in the Indian economy could have slowed from 6.6% in the fourth quarter of 2018 to 6.1% in the first three months of 2019. The rate of growth could be the slowest since 2017.

Foreign direct investment into Vietnam could have swelled to US$7.3 billion from US$5.7 billion in April. Last month, Vietnam’s manufacturing and processing industries were two of the largest beneficiaries, followed by the wholesale and retail sectors.

And finally, it is time for those Singapore bank-lending numbers. In March, lending by Singapore banks jumped to an all-time high of S$676.1 billion, driven by lending to businesses. Keep an eye on teh three Singapore-listed banks, namely, DBS Group (SGX: D05), OCBC (SGX: O39) and UBS (SGX: U11).

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