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The Week Ahead: The Xi-Trump Showdown

By Monday, if not before, we should get some details of the discussion on the side lines of the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Some think that the two leaders could call a truce on the trade dispute that has damaged both America and China. Fingers crossed.

Staying in the US, it’s time for those non-farm payroll numbers again. In October, some 250,000 jobs were created, which was above the consensus of 190,000 jobs. The guesstimate for November is 169,000.

China’s most recent official manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices made for grim reading. they are flirting with contraction. The Caixin PMIs next week are not expected to be that much better. The manufacturing, services and composite indices should still be above 50, but only by a whisker.

Retail sales in October for the eurozone are expected to indicate an improvement of 1.1% from a year ago. Meanwhile, the third estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter for the economic bloc is expected to be confirmed at 1.7%.

Indonesia will report retail sales growth for October, which is expected to come in at 3.9%. In September it was 4.8%. Indonesia will also report inflation numbers for November. That is expected to show a slight pick-up from 3.1% in October to 3.6%.

There are also inflation figures from the Philippines, which experts believe could have slowed from a rate of 6.7% to 5.7%. Elsewhere, the headline inflation rate in Thailand could have moderated from 1.2% to 0.9%.

Finally, Singapore’s manufacturing sector activity is expected to have expanded in November but at a weak pace. The reading of 51.9 in October was the weakest since August 2017. The reading for November could be even weaker at 51.1.

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