My Foolish colleague, Chong Ser Jing, recently ranked all the stocks in the Singapore market according to the Magic Formula, an investing strategy popularised by Joel Greenblatt in his book, The Little Book That Beats The Market. Ser Jing wanted to find the 30 best stocks in Singapore for 2018, based on the Magic Formula, and Golden Energy and Resources Ltd (SGX: AUE) happened to be one of them. Golden Energy and Resources, or GEAR for short, was formerly known as United Fiber System Limited. GEAR is mainly involved in the exploration, mining processing and marketing of thermal coal sourced from its…
My Foolish colleague, Chong Ser Jing, recently ranked all the stocks in the Singapore market according to the Magic Formula, an investing strategy popularised by Joel Greenblatt in his book, The Little Book That Beats The Market. Ser Jing wanted to find the 30 best stocks in Singapore for 2018, based on the Magic Formula, and Golden Energy and Resources Ltd (SGX: AUE) happened to be one of them.
Golden Energy and Resources, or GEAR for short, was formerly known as United Fiber System Limited. GEAR is mainly involved in the exploration, mining processing and marketing of thermal coal sourced from its coal mining concession areas. The concession areas are in Indonesia’s South Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, Jambi and South Sumatra.
Even though GEAR was ranked highly on Greenblatt’s Magic Formula, would one of the greatest investors in the world, Warren Buffett, be interested in the company? We can’t ask him in person, but we can turn to a six-point acquisition criteria formulated by the Oracle of Omaha to give us some clues to answer the question. However, more importantly, Buffett’s checklist, together with the deep dive into GEAR’s financials that I did recently, can help investors develop a better understanding of the company.
With that, let’s turn to Buffett’s acquisition criteria.
1. Pre-tax earnings of at least US$75 million
Buffett has this criterion in place because the conglomerate he controls, Berkshire Hathaway, is a near-US$500 billion behemoth, so his acquisition targets need to be of a certain size to move the needle for Berkshire.
In 2017, GEAR had pre-tax earnings of U$157.6 million, which meets the first criterion.
2. Demonstrated consistent earning power
The second criterion helps Buffett determine if a company has a stable and/or growing business. Companies that have a history of steady and growing earnings tend to have competitive advantages that help their businesses grow over time.
The table below shows the net profit for GEAR over the past four years:Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
GEAR’s net profit over the past four years has been erratic. The company is largely exposed to the movement of coal prices and therefore, any sluggish coal demand could drastically affect the firm’s profitability.
3. Good returns on equity (ROE) while employing little or no debt
This criterion’s purpose is similar to the second: It helps Buffett identify companies with competitive advantages. Generally, a company that has a history of generating good ROE while employing little or no debt has a high chance of possessing durable competitive advantages.
Here’s a table illustrating GEAR’s return on equity, and total-debt-to-equity ratio, from 2014 to 2017:Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
The company ended 2017 with an ROE of 25.2% and manageable debt. Its balance sheet, as at 31 December 2017, carried US$188.7 million in cash and US$95 million in total borrowings.
4. Management in place
Buffett included this criterion because he did not want to have to provide a management team when he acquires a company. For stock market investors like you and me, this criterion has no real meaning, since public-listed companies almost always have leaders in place. However, this point is a reminder for us to take a look at the people running a company when researching a stock.
The executive director and chief executive of GEAR is Fuganto Widjaja. He has over 10 years of experience in general management and supervisory responsibilities in the coal industry.
5. A simple business
In my view, GEAR is not the simplest of companies to understand.
However, it is worth noting that Buffett had this rule in place to cater to his circle of competence. He is only interested in acquiring businesses that he understands. Going with this train of thought, what I think is a complicated business may be easy for you to understand, and vice versa.
6. An offering price
This is another criterion in Buffett’s checklist that is not applicable for stock market investors, since stocks have quoted prices that are easily seen, unlike the private businesses that Buffett evaluates for acquisitions. This criterion, though, serves as a useful reminder that the price we pay for a stock is critical.
If we overpay for a stock (meaning we invest in a stock at an expensive valuation), the chances of our investment succeeding will be low. A famous quote from Buffett, “Price is what you pay, value is what you get,” rings true here.
Coming to GEAR, the company last traded at a stock price of S$0.355 on Monday, giving it a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of around nine and a dividend yield of 5.7%.
A Foolish conclusion
The deep dive I did earlier on GEAR, and the application of Buffett’s checklist should help investors make a better-informed investing decision on the company. Stay tuned for more on the rest of the companies from the 2018 best stocks list. For a repository of all the articles in this new series that uses Warren Buffett’s acquisition criteria to analyse the 30 best stocks, you can head here.
There are 28 surprising and important things we think every Singaporean investor should know—and we’ve laid them all out in The Motley Fool Singapore’s new e-book. Packed with information and insights, we believe this book will help you be a better, smarter investor. You can download the full e-book FREE of charge—simply click here now to claim your copy.
The information provided is for general information purposes only and is not intended to be personalised investment or financial advice. Motley Fool Singapore contributor Sudhan P doesn’t own shares in any companies mentioned.