I wonder how many of you are familiar with the “Amoeba Theory of Investing”. I’ll hazard a guess and say that not many are because it is an idea that I came up with whilst playing around with numbers on my calculator. It is not a concept that I have shared widely either, because it is still in its developmental stages. That notwithstanding, here it is. But before that, here is a very quick quiz that I hope will help set the scene. Double, double If an amoeba in a jar doubled every second, and it took precisely one minute…
I wonder how many of you are familiar with the “Amoeba Theory of Investing”. I’ll hazard a guess and say that not many are because it is an idea that I came up with whilst playing around with numbers on my calculator.
It is not a concept that I have shared widely either, because it is still in its developmental stages. That notwithstanding, here it is. But before that, here is a very quick quiz that I hope will help set the scene.
If an amoeba in a jar doubled every second, and it took precisely one minute for the amoebas to fill the jar, how long would it take for the jar to be exactly half full?
Some of you might point out that I haven’t given you nearly enough information to solve the puzzle. After all, does it not depend on the size of the jar and the size of the amoeba?
But all the information that you need to arrive at the correct answer is already embedded in the question.
The answer is 59 seconds. Why? It is because precisely one second after that (that is at the 60th second), the jar will be completely full.
But what does this have to do with investing? In my view, it has a couple of important things that could help us become better investors.
Making good decisions
Firstly, much of the information that we need to make good investing decisions are readily available. They can be found in a company’s balance sheet, its profit loss accounts and the cash flow statement.
They can also be found in research reports about the particular industry that a company operates in. Quite often, the information is even available for free.
Making use of the information properly is crucial to making the right decisions about the companies we invest in. Warren Buffett once said: “The key is having more information than the other guy – then analysing it right and using it rationally.”
Faster and faster
The second takeaway from the “amoeba” analogy concerns growth investing. Growth investors are often on the lookout for companies that can expand faster than the wider market. Examples of growth companies include Raffles Medical (SGX: R01) and Sheng Siong (SGX: OV8).
Growth shares were very popular in the 1990s, when technology companies such as Yahoo, Intel, Cisco and Apple were all the rage. What’s more, many growth investors were making money hand-over-fist – often effortlessly. Embryonic technology companies would, for instance, see the popularity of their product or service double very quickly from a standing start.
The valuation of these businesses would also rise – often in tandem, if not faster. Consequently, many investors armed with just a pin and a list of fast-growing companies could almost pick growth shares blindfolded. Unfortunately, many also came unstuck, when growth came to an abrupt halt.
But how do you find good growth companies?
One way is to look for companies that have demonstrated rapid growth in the past. The idea here is that if a company has been able to show grow quickly in the past, say over the last five years or so, then it could grow for the next five years too.
What we are looking out for are companies that have proven track records at handling growth. It is also vital to look for companies whose profits are growing at a reasonable clip.
Young vs old
Characteristically these tend to be younger companies. But we should not dismiss older outfits out of hand. There may be life in the old dog, yet. After all, if a company has successfully grown profits at 20% a year, and is forecast to continue to grow at 20% a year, then it means that profits could double in around five years.
Look for companies with sustainable margins too. It can be an indication that the managers of the business are able to keep costs under control. Ideally, we want to see operating margins strengthen as sales rise. It can be a good sign that the business is scalable. In other words, it can grow sales without having to increase costs disproportionately.
Finally, we circle back to the humble amoeba.
It may seem obvious but it is crucial to identify markets limitations. Fast-growing businesses rely on markets that can grow quickly enough to adopt and buy its goods or services.
An abrupt end
However, bear in mind that markets have limits beyond which growth companies will find it difficult to expand. So, just like the amoeba in the jar, growth can come to an end…sometimes very abruptly.
The secret to growth investing is, therefore, simple. Look for companies whose fast-growing earnings will translate into higher share prices.
Generally, growth companies can be more expensive than the market average. But this is in the hope that the value of the business will grow and exceed their current valuations. The tough part is to know when growth is about to end, and to be prepared before it does.
A version of this article first appeared in The Straits Times.
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